Pulse: Predicting the Unpredictable

2024 was an interesting year for global HE, to say the least.

We saw study destinations across the world seemingly competing to see who could discourage the largest share of international student interest through anti-immigration policy. We’ve also seen national elections resulting in changes of government (and therefore policy) in the UK, the USA, the Netherlands, and France (among others), and still have elections and/or government changes yet to come for Ireland, Germany, Australia, Canada and others.

You get the idea, it’s a bit messy for prospective international students at the moment. How are they to know where best to entrust their future? And how are you supposed to keep up with where their attentions are turning on a macro level?

Well, one answer lies in our Pulse and Share of Search data, which can often predict shifts ahead of time.

In this post I’m going to demonstrate just how you can stay ahead of the curve (or, at least, the time series chart). I’ll provide a number of examples of our data serving as a (global postgraduate) crystal ball, and explain some of the trends we expect to see in the coming months.

We start with Ireland, who appear to be one of the major benefactors of policy uncertainty elsewhere.

Here at FAU, we started publishing our Global Pulse Reports in October 2024 and in every edition so far our data has been adamant on one point. Irish PG – predominantly PGT – is seeing strong growth from all major audiences.

This continues a trend that first appeared in our data at the end of 2022.

As the chart shows, international Share of Search (the proportion of our audience who actively search for a given destination) for Irish Masters study continues to rise after significant growth over the previous two recruitment cycles. PhD audiences, by contrast, saw more subtle growth over 2022/23 and 2023/24; though that has since dipped back down to the level we saw at the start of that period.

Then, in January this year, the PIE reported that Irish HE saw record breaking international enrolment in 23/24, exceeding 40,000 international students for the first time ever. The chart below maps their postgraduate enrolments against the Masters level Share of Search figures we saw a moment ago.

We see a clear correlation between interest and enrolments.

Considering that growth from Masters audiences has continued into the latest recruitment cycle and that there is undoubtedly a delay between search, application and enrolment, we would expect to see international student recruitment in Ireland continue to grow into the 2024/25 academic year as audiences adapt to the new policy-led global HE landscape.

Similarly, since the first publication of our Global Pulse Reports, we have consistently seen interest fall for Canadian PG study across a number of key international audiences. This is in response to a series of international student caps implemented since January 2024.

Initially, a temporary cap was imposed for undergraduate students only, with the aim being to cut study permit approvals by 35%. In September 2024, it was announced that that initial cap would be extended and expanded to include postgraduate students.

Below we can see the impact of the caps on international interest in Canadian postgraduate study.

We see that interest was already on the wane before the first study cap announcement was made. This then led to a much greater fall for Masters audiences and a slight fall for Doctoral audiences, despite the fact that the cap (at that point) did not include postgraduate students.

Since the announcement that the cap would be expanded to include postgrad students, we see a continued fall for Masters but a subtle recovery for PhD interest, suggesting that international PhD interest may have ‘bottomed out’ so to speak.

In January, IRCC data showed that Canadian study permit approvals were on track to fall by 45% rather than the planned reduction of 35%. A significant overshoot.

Our Share of Search data therefore goes some way to explaining why. International interest was already declining prior to the implementation of study permit caps. Furthermore, Masters interest was significantly affected by the announcement of caps even before they were altered to directly impact postgraduate students. The word ‘overkill’ springs to mind.

Based on our recent Global Pulse Reports, we would expect this trend to continue for the foreseeable. You can subscribe to these reports in order to keep up with the latest in global PG before interest translates to action.

2024 was a bit of a rollercoaster for UK PG. However, following that analogy, if the international enrolment figures of 2022/23 were the peak of the loop-de-loop and the summer of 2024 the inevitable trough which comes after, then it would appear that we’re utilizing the acceleration built up on the downward trajectory of the loop to, finally, see international interest back on the ascent.

That’s a rather convoluted way of saying, things are looking up.

Our Pulse Reports throughout the previous year showed that visa fee increases, the dependants ban and the Graduate Route review saw international interest in UK PG in a rough place around the time that the general election took place in July.

We see that play out in the data below, which shows non-EU audience interest in UK PG over the last 18 months or so.

The fall in Masters level international interest first started around October 2023, following the close of the ‘final’ September intake before the PGT dependents ban. It hit its low point in July 2024. Whereas it wasn’t until April/May 2024 that PhD level interest followed suit but that similarly bottomed out in July.

Since then, however, consistent messaging promoting the UK’s commitment to international students, anti-immigration policy implementation in other notable PG study destinations and the return of a notable figure across the pond seem to have made the UK a more appealing prospect once again. The UK’s Share of Search from both Masters and PhD audiences have returned to their high points of the previous 18 months, and they look set to stay.

Data from the Home Office largely correlates with what we’ve been reporting all year. The chart below maps the year-on-year difference in the number of Sponsored Study Visa Applications against the UK Share of Search data we saw previously.

For example, March 2024 saw 3,000 less Sponsored Study Visa Applications than March 2023.

August 2024 saw the largest year-on-year application deficit, which reflects the July low point in interest. Since the summer, however, as we’ve seen international interest in UK PG rise, that visa application deficit has narrowed, leading to December and January when we saw a greater number of applications than the previous year.

The UK appears to be a relatively stable study destination (at least in comparison to its competitors) but we are seeing stories of potential changes to post-study work visas in the upcoming immigration white paper (and my colleague, Mark, has examined what this might mean).

Fingers crossed that we see this recovery in international interest continue into the new year. Stability and consistency appear to be key to PG success in 2025, long may it continue.

To ensure that you stay ahead of the curve, subscribe to our monthly Pulse reports or get in touch directly, if you have a more specific enquiry. We offer insights into the searching patterns of global audiences as well as their thoughts, demographics and study preferences.

Predicting the future of global PG is a labyrinth. Our insights can offer you a map.

You may also like...